Against the spread
How the market behaves, and where it has been wrong. Spreads and totals for every game back to 1999, graded.
All 7,276 of them, 1999 to today — who was favoured, who covered, and whether it went over. Filter by season, team or week.
The market now
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Last 5 games of 2025 · against the spread| Last 5 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars | WWWWW | 12-5 | 8-2 | 5-0 | 3-0 | +6.7 | 10-7 |
 VikingsMinnesota Vikings | WWWWW | 9-8 | 6-4 | 5-0 | 3-0 | +1.9 | 8-9 |
 SaintsNew Orleans Saints | WWWWW | 9-8 | 7-3 | 5-0 | 3-0 | -0.2 | 5-12 |
 RamsLos Angeles Rams | WWWLW | 12-5 | 7-3 | 4-1 | 2-1 | +4.1 | 10-7 |
 PatriotsNew England Patriots | WLWWW | 12-5 | 7-3 | 4-1 | 3-0 | +6.2 | 11-6 |
 SteelersPittsburgh Steelers | WWWLW | 9-7-1 | 6-3-1 | 4-1 | 2-1 | +0.8 | 10-7 |
 49ersSan Francisco 49ers | WWWWL | 11-6 | 7-3 | 4-1 | 2-1 | +2.2 | 10-7 |
 FalconsAtlanta Falcons | LWWWL | 9-8 | 6-4 | 3-2 | 2-1 | -2.0 | 8-9 |
 PanthersCarolina Panthers | WLWLW | 10-7 | 5-5 | 3-2 | 2-1 | +0.3 | 7-10 |
 BengalsCincinnati Bengals | WLWWL | 8-9 | 5-5 | 3-2 | 2-1 | -2.4 | 9-8 |
 BrownsCleveland Browns | LLWWW | 8-9 | 5-5 | 3-2 | 3-0 | -0.5 | 8-9 |
 TexansHouston Texans | WWLWL | 9-8 | 6-4 | 3-2 | 1-2 | +4.5 | 6-11 |
 ChargersLos Angeles Chargers | WWWLL | 9-8 | 6-4 | 3-2 | 1-2 | +0.2 | 7-10 |
 RaidersLas Vegas Raiders | WLWLW | 7-10 | 5-5 | 3-2 | 2-1 | -6.0 | 8-9 |
 EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles | LWWWL | 10-7 | 6-4 | 3-2 | 2-1 | -0.9 | 7-10 |
 SeahawksSeattle Seahawks | WLLWW | 12-5 | 7-3 | 3-2 | 2-1 | +6.9 | 9-8 |
 CommandersWashington Commanders | LWLWW | 7-10 | 4-6 | 3-2 | 2-1 | -2.9 | 10-7 |
 RavensBaltimore Ravens | LWLWL | 6-11 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | -2.5 | 11-6 |
 BillsBuffalo Bills | LWLLW | 8-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +0.6 | 9-8 |
 BearsChicago Bears | LWWLL | 9-7-1 | 5-4-1 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +2.2 | 8-9 |
 BroncosDenver Broncos | LWLLW | 7-10 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +0.6 | 7-10 |
 LionsDetroit Lions | WLLLW | 8-9 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +0.2 | 10-7 |
 ColtsIndianapolis Colts | LWLLW | 9-8 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +2.5 | 9-8 |
 DolphinsMiami Dolphins | WLLWL | 8-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | -1.4 | 10-7 |
 GiantsNew York Giants | LLLWW | 9-8 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 2-1 | +1.4 | 11-6 |
 TitansTennessee Titans | WLWLL | 7-10 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | -3.8 | 11-6 |
 PackersGreen Bay Packers | WLLLL | 6-11 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-3 | -2.1 | 9-8 |
 ChiefsKansas City Chiefs | LLLWL | 6-11 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -1.0 | 4-13 |
 CardinalsArizona Cardinals | LLLLL | 6-11 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 0-3 | -4.1 | 10-7 |
 CowboysDallas Cowboys | LLLLL | 7-10 | 3-7 | 0-5 | 0-3 | -2.7 | 13-4 |
 JetsNew York Jets | LLLLL | 7-10 | 4-6 | 0-5 | 0-3 | -5.7 | 11-6 |
 BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers | LLLLL | 5-12 | 1-9 | 0-5 | 0-3 | -3.0 | 8-9 |
2025 regular season. The markers are the last five games, oldest on the left — W means the team beat the spread, L that it did not, P a push. Hover any of them for the opponent, the number and the score. Season, L10, L5 and L3 are its record against the spread over those windows. Click any column heading to sort by it. Pts vs line is the average margin against the number per game, which separates two teams that look identical at 3-2: covering three times by a point is not the same as covering by two touchdowns. Short windows are form, not evidence. A 4-1 run is what roughly one team in six will have by chance, so treat it as a reason to look rather than a reason on its own.
Against the spread
Every team · 2021–2025 regular season| DETDetroit Lions | 54-29-2 | 65% | 26-14-2 | 28-15 | 46-37-2 |
| CINCincinnati Bengals | 47-34-3 | 58% | 20-19-3 | 27-15 | 44-38-2 |
| PITPittsburgh Steelers | 48-35-2 | 58% | 25-17-1 | 23-18-1 | 37-47-1 |
| LALos Angeles Rams | 46-37-2 | 55% | 23-19 | 23-18-2 | 42-43 |
| LACLos Angeles Chargers | 46-37-2 | 55% | 22-19-2 | 24-18 | 37-48 |
| DALDallas Cowboys | 46-38-1 | 55% | 24-18 | 22-20-1 | 50-34-1 |
| MINMinnesota Vikings | 43-37-5 | 54% | 21-21 | 22-16-5 | 43-41-1 |
| PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 44-38-3 | 54% | 21-19-2 | 23-19-1 | 43-42 |
| SFSan Francisco 49ers | 45-40 | 53% | 22-20 | 23-20 | 46-36-3 |
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 44-40-1 | 52% | 23-20 | 21-20-1 | 40-45 |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | 42-39-3 | 52% | 21-20-2 | 21-19-1 | 40-43-1 |
| ARIArizona Cardinals | 44-41 | 52% | 18-24 | 26-17 | 46-38-1 |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | 43-41-1 | 51% | 25-17 | 18-24-1 | 43-41-1 |
| MIAMiami Dolphins | 43-41-1 | 51% | 24-19 | 19-22-1 | 42-43 |
| SEASeattle Seahawks | 42-41-2 | 51% | 17-24-1 | 25-17-1 | 39-45-1 |
| INDIndianapolis Colts | 43-42 | 51% | 20-23 | 23-19 | 45-40 |
| NENew England Patriots | 41-41-3 | 50% | 18-24-1 | 23-17-2 | 46-39 |
| BALBaltimore Ravens | 41-42-2 | 49% | 18-24-1 | 23-18-1 | 45-40 |
| HOUHouston Texans | 41-42-2 | 49% | 20-22-1 | 21-20-1 | 33-51-1 |
| LVLas Vegas Raiders | 41-42-2 | 49% | 23-19-1 | 18-23-1 | 40-45 |
| NYGNew York Giants | 41-43-1 | 49% | 21-20-1 | 20-23 | 35-49-1 |
| CHIChicago Bears | 37-39-9 | 49% | 21-16-5 | 16-23-4 | 41-44 |
| DENDenver Broncos | 40-44-1 | 48% | 23-20 | 17-24-1 | 37-48 |
| TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | 39-45-1 | 46% | 17-24-1 | 22-21 | 41-44 |
| WASWashington Commanders | 38-44-3 | 46% | 18-22-2 | 20-22-1 | 43-41-1 |
| NONew Orleans Saints | 38-46-1 | 45% | 17-25 | 21-21-1 | 31-53-1 |
| CARCarolina Panthers | 36-47-2 | 43% | 20-21-1 | 16-26-1 | 41-43-1 |
| CLECleveland Browns | 36-47-2 | 43% | 22-20-1 | 14-27-1 | 40-43-2 |
| TENTennessee Titans | 35-46-4 | 43% | 18-22-3 | 17-24-1 | 39-45-1 |
| KCKansas City Chiefs | 35-48-2 | 42% | 18-24-1 | 17-24-1 | 34-51 |
| ATLAtlanta Falcons | 34-49-2 | 41% | 14-27-1 | 20-22-1 | 36-49 |
| NYJNew York Jets | 33-51-1 | 39% | 18-25 | 15-26-1 | 43-42 |
Favourites and underdogs
Against the spread by role and venue · 2021–2025 regular seasonGiving points at home
Taking points at home
Giving points on the road
Taking points on the road
Venue alone tangles two effects, because a home team is usually the favourite. Splitting by role separates them: covering at home might just mean being a good team, whereas covering as a home underdog is a different fact. Every home favourite is an away underdog in the same game, so those two are mirrors of each other league-wide.
Totals
Over and under by condition and team · 2021–2025 regular seasonDome or closed roof, no weather
Open air
Familiar opponents
Where the market expects points
| DALDallas Cowboys | 50-34-1 | 60% | 27-15 | 23-19-1 | 50.8 |
| SFSan Francisco 49ers | 46-36-3 | 56% | 23-19 | 23-17-3 | 46.4 |
| DETDetroit Lions | 46-37-2 | 55% | 27-15 | 19-22-2 | 50.9 |
| ARIArizona Cardinals | 46-38-1 | 55% | 27-15 | 19-23-1 | 47.2 |
| NENew England Patriots | 46-39 | 54% | 25-18 | 21-21 | 42.3 |
| CINCincinnati Bengals | 44-38-2 | 54% | 25-16-1 | 19-22-1 | 49.3 |
| BALBaltimore Ravens | 45-40 | 53% | 23-20 | 22-20 | 46.0 |
| INDIndianapolis Colts | 45-40 | 53% | 24-19 | 21-21 | 47.4 |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | 43-41-1 | 51% | 18-23-1 | 25-18 | 45.2 |
| MINMinnesota Vikings | 43-41-1 | 51% | 18-23-1 | 25-18 | 45.3 |
| WASWashington Commanders | 43-41-1 | 51% | 21-21 | 22-20-1 | 46.6 |
| NYJNew York Jets | 43-42 | 51% | 22-21 | 21-21 | 42.3 |
| PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 43-42 | 51% | 25-17 | 18-25 | 46.8 |
| LALos Angeles Rams | 42-43 | 49% | 20-22 | 22-21 | 46.1 |
| MIAMiami Dolphins | 42-43 | 49% | 20-23 | 22-20 | 45.6 |
| CARCarolina Panthers | 41-43-1 | 49% | 19-22-1 | 22-21 | 42.9 |
| CHIChicago Bears | 41-44 | 48% | 19-23 | 22-21 | 44.5 |
| TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | 41-44 | 48% | 23-19 | 18-25 | 45.7 |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | 40-43-1 | 48% | 23-19-1 | 17-24 | 47.8 |
| CLECleveland Browns | 40-43-2 | 48% | 17-24-2 | 23-19 | 42.0 |
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 40-45 | 47% | 16-27 | 24-18 | 44.4 |
| LVLas Vegas Raiders | 40-45 | 47% | 24-19 | 16-26 | 43.6 |
| SEASeattle Seahawks | 39-45-1 | 46% | 21-21 | 18-24-1 | 45.3 |
| TENTennessee Titans | 39-45-1 | 46% | 16-26-1 | 23-19 | 42.8 |
| PITPittsburgh Steelers | 37-47-1 | 44% | 16-26-1 | 21-21 | 41.6 |
| DENDenver Broncos | 37-48 | 44% | 19-24 | 18-24 | 41.4 |
| LACLos Angeles Chargers | 37-48 | 44% | 21-22 | 16-26 | 45.4 |
| ATLAtlanta Falcons | 36-49 | 42% | 17-25 | 19-24 | 44.5 |
| NYGNew York Giants | 35-49-1 | 42% | 14-27-1 | 21-22 | 42.2 |
| KCKansas City Chiefs | 34-51 | 40% | 12-31 | 22-20 | 44.4 |
| HOUHouston Texans | 33-51-1 | 39% | 17-25-1 | 16-26 | 42.5 |
| NONew Orleans Saints | 31-53-1 | 37% | 15-27 | 16-26-1 | 41.5 |
Both sides of every game count towards each team, so the league totals here are double the number of fixtures. Pushes are shown separately rather than counted as half.
Miles on the road
2025 regular season, away games only, assuming a return home between tripsDistances are great-circle between stadiums. Teams almost always return home between games, so that is assumed; consecutive road trips exist but are rare enough that assuming them would be more wrong than not.
The baseline
1,359 games · 2021–2025 regular seasonA working market sits near half. This is the check that proved the spread was being read the right way round.
Slightly under half, which is the long-run tendency.
Pushes are counted separately throughout rather than as half a win, so a record of 9-8-1 means exactly that.
Where the market gets it wrong
5,051 games with prices on both sides, back to 2006Bookmakers are good, but not perfect. Across 1,038 games where the price implied a 65% chance, the favoured side actually won 62% of the time — so that band is priced slightly short, and the value sits on the other side. The table below is the same check across every price band.
0.250 is a coin flip. Lower is better. This is real skill, modestly so.
What the book charges on a two-sided moneyline, after both prices are compared.
Every regular-season game with a price on both sides.
- 9.3%0.0%7
- 16.2%19.0%105
- 25.7%25.4%378
- 35.3%34.8%643
- 44.6%43.0%693
- 55.4%53.2%825
- 64.8%61.7%1,038
- 74.8%76.3%890
- 84.3%86.5%431
- 91.7%95.1%41
Prices are converted to probabilities and the bookmaker's margin is removed by normalising both sides to sum to 100, which is what turns a price into the market's actual view. Rows with fewer than a hundred games are faded: at the extremes the sample is small and a few points either way means nothing. This describes how the market has behaved. It is not a system.
Trends
Patterns, and how many were searched to find them · 2021–2025 regular season- DET covers the spread54-29-265%
- NO games go over the total31-53-137%
- Teams cover the spread in their next game after playing NYJ29-49-237%
- ATL covers at home14-27-134%
- CLE covers on the road14-27-134%
- HOU games go over the total33-51-139%
- NYJ covers the spread33-51-139%
- DET covers on the road28-1565%
- DET covers at home26-14-265%
- KC games go over the total34-5140%
- CIN covers on the road27-1564%
- Teams cover the spread in their next game after playing SEA48-3260%
- SF covers as an underdog3-1023%
- DAL games go over the total50-34-160%
The 14 most surprising of 196 are listed. The headline above counts them all.
Prop board
Your lines, kept in this browserNothing on the board yet. Add a player, pick the stat and type the line your bookmaker is offering — 48.5 receiving yards, say — and this shows how often he has cleared it, what the defence he faces next allows, and where the two disagree. Prices are optional; enter both sides and the margin is stripped before the comparison. Everything stays in this browser.