Fantasy
Draft consensus set against what each player actually earned, how steady he was week to week, and which defences he opens and finishes against. Nothing here predicts the season; it is what already happened, put next to what the market thinks.
The board
Consensus, ADP and what 2025 was actually worth- WR tier 116 players
- RB tier 111 players
- TE tier 13 players
Scoring, league size and lineup drive everything on this tab, not just the board. Value and startable rate are measured against the first player nobody has to start at each position, which for 12 teams, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 flex is a different bar from any other setting here — the most common setup — 76.5% start two receivers, 65.2% run one flex. The mock draft below runs at the same size. Every figure describes 2025.
Where the board and the numbers disagree
Consensus rank against what his opportunities were worth- Troy FranklinWR DEN+30
- Keon ColemanWR BUF+26
- Wan'Dale RobinsonWR TEN+20
- Davante AdamsWR LAR+19
- Jakobi MeyersWR JAC+19
- Elic AyomanorWR TEN+19
- Michael WilsonWR ARI+18
- Zach CharbonnetRB SEA+18
- Luther Burden IIIWR CHI-49
- Jaylin NoelWR HOU-49
- Tre' HarrisWR LAC-48
- Jack BechWR LVR-46
- Matthew GoldenWR GBP-38
- Isaac TeSlaaWR DET-36
- Bhayshul TutenRB JAC-34
- Isaiah LikelyTE NYG-32
Two figures per player: what he scored per game, then what his opportunities were worth. When the second is higher he was unlucky rather than bad. Both ranks are positional, because a back's points are not comparable to a quarterback's. Neither predicts 2026; both describe what already happened.
Mock draft
Snake order, and the other teams draft to ADPPick a draft slot and press Start. The teams ahead of you go first.
Your roster
Nothing drafted yet.
Bye weeks that collide
Which weeks take most draftable players off the board at onceEvery player inside the top 100 of the consensus board, grouped by his club's bye. Open a week to see all of them — there is no cap, and the point of the block is checking the specific players you are considering rather than noticing the problem in the abstract.
Your picks, round by round
Who is realistically there when your turn comesSnake draft — odd rounds run 1 to 12, even rounds run back. From seat 1 of 12 you pick at 1, 24, 25, 48… — 23 picks between your first two, where seat 1 waits 23 and seat 12 waits 1. Percentages are the chance a player is still on the board at that pick, worked out from his average draft position and how much it varies between rooms. They are not a promise.
- Round 1pick 1PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 0RB 4WR 4TE 0
- Round 2pick 24PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 1RB 7WR 6TE 1
- Round 3pick 25PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 1RB 7WR 7TE 1
- Round 4pick 48PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 3RB 5WR 6TE 1
- Round 5pick 49PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 3RB 4WR 6TE 1
- Round 6pick 72PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 3RB 7WR 7TE 3
- Round 7pick 73PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 4RB 6WR 9TE 3
- Round 8pick 96PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 5RB 5WR 9TE 2
- Round 9pick 97PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 7RB 5WR 8TE 2
- Round 10pick 120PosPlayerADP (range)ThereQB 4RB 6WR 7TE 4
Gold names are the ones worth planning around: genuinely uncertain, so they may slide to you or may not. Players whose average draft position is more than three quarters of a round later than your pick are left out of that pick entirely — taking them there spends more than they cost. Every pick is assessed independently, so a player can appear at several of your turns; this does not model who your opponents take.
Late-round gold
Cheap players with a measured reason to be worth more
Patrick Mahomes II
Rooms are letting him go in the ninth round or later while his 2025 carries, targets and field position were worth a starting spot. 43 players qualify on measured evidence, and every reason is printed beside the name.
- 99.0R9Patrick Mahomes IIQB KCCearned QB1·board has him QB13+12+3.0+3.0 a game
- 134.8R12Jake FergusonTE DALearned TE4·board has him TE11+7+2.2+2.2 a game
- 114.8R10George KittleTE SFOearned TE5·board has him TE10+5+1.8+1.8 a game
- 108.3R10Travis KelceTE KCCearned TE7·board has him TE9+2+0.9+0.9 a game
- 118.1R10Bo NixQB DENearned QB9·board has him QB14+5+0.6+0.6 a game
- 154.8R13Dalton SchultzTE HOUearned TE8·board has him TE21+13+0.6+0.6 a game
- 105.2R9Justin HerbertQB LACearned QB10·board has him QB8+0.5+0.5 a game
- 153.0R13Daniel JonesQB INDearned QB11·board has him QB23+12+0.5+0.5 a game
- 157.6R14Hunter HenryTE NEPearned TE9·board has him TE19+10+0.3+0.3 a game
- 115.5R10Dallas GoedertTE PHIearned TE10·board has him TE14+4+0.3+0.3 a game
- 144.8R13Jauan JenningsWR MINearned WR34·board has him WR52+18+0.1+0.1 a game
- 108.9R10Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SFOearned WR36·board has him WR50+14+0.0+0.0 a game
- 98.2R9Aaron Jones Sr.RB MINearned RB31·board has him RB36+512gsnaps +14 pts
- 101.3R9Khalil ShakirWR BUFearned WR49·board has him WR4416gsnaps +9 pts
- 105.0R9Rachaad WhiteRB WASearned RB40·board has him RB3417g347 pts left WAS
- 115.3R10Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASearned RB45·board has him RB3717g347 pts left WAS
- 123.7R11Jalen CokerWR CARearned WR72·board has him WR4611gsnaps +14 pts
- 139.0R12Zach CharbonnetRB SEAearned RB25·board has him RB43+1816gsnaps +9 pts
- 147.1R13Pat BryantWR DENearned WR76·board has him WR6313gsnaps +9 pts
- 149.7R13Braelon AllenRB NYJtoo few games last season to rank him4g335 pts left NYJ
- 150.8R13Chimere DikeWR TENearned WR62·board has him WR70+817gsnaps +16 pts
- 151.4R13Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGearned RB27·board has him RB39+1215gsnaps +16 pts
- 151.6R13Malik WashingtonWR MIAearned WR68·board has him WR6017g449 pts left MIA
- 155.2R13Cooper KuppWR SEAearned WR61·board has him WR69+816gsnaps +13 pts
- 156.6R14Chris BoswellK PITno gamestoo few games last season to rank him0g382 pts left PIT
- 161.4R14Dylan SampsonRB CLEearned RB55·board has him RB4615gsnaps +20 pts
- 161.8R14Adonai MitchellWR NYJearned WR64·board has him WR5416gsnaps +39 pts335 pts left NYJ
- 162.1R14Chig OkonkwoTE WASearned TE31·board has him TE1717g347 pts left WAS
- 162.5R14Malik WillisQB MIAtoo few games last season to rank him4g449 pts left MIA
- 162.8R14Omar Cooper Jr.WR NYJno gamestoo few games last season to rank him0g335 pts left NYJ
- 163.9R14Tyler AllgeierRB ARIearned RB49·board has him RB4017g328 pts left ARI
- 164.5R14Jacoby BrissettQB ARIearned QB14·board has him QB25+1114g328 pts left ARI
- 164.9R14Brian Robinson Jr.RB ATLearned RB67·board has him RB5017g386 pts left ATL
- 166.8R14Aaron RodgersQB PITearned QB26·board has him QB2616g382 pts left PIT
- 167.4R14Antonio WilliamsWR WASno gamestoo few games last season to rank him0g347 pts left WAS
- 168.7R15Kenyon SadiqTE NYJno gamestoo few games last season to rank him0g335 pts left NYJ
- 168.8R15Greg DulcichTE MIAearned TE32·board has him TE239g449 pts left MIA
- 169.8R15Ryan FlournoyWR DALearned WR70·board has him WR5715gsnaps +20 pts
- 170.9R15Zachariah BranchWR ATLno gamestoo few games last season to rank him0g386 pts left ATL
- 171.5R15James ConnerRB ARItoo few games last season to rank him3g328 pts left ARI
- 172.5R15Germie BernardWR PITno gamestoo few games last season to rank him0g382 pts left PIT
- 176.9R15Isaac TeSlaaWR DETearned WR102·board has him WR6614gsnaps +21 pts
- 190.7R16Pat FreiermuthTE PITearned TE37·board has him TE2715gsnaps +20 pts382 pts left PIT
Everyone going in round 9 or later in real PPR drafts who has at least one of the three reasons above, measured for 12 teams, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 flex — change either and the bar for “earned it” moves with it, because replacement level is a property of the league rather than of the player. Ranked by what his 2025 opportunities were worth per game, not by how many reasons he carries — two weak signals are not one strong one. “Earned it” needs 8 games, the same bar the regression lists use: a player with three big games has a huge per-game figure and tells you nothing. A growing role and vacated work are facts about the job rather than averages, so they carry no such minimum. Nothing here is a projection — every figure describes a season that has already happened and the moves since it, which is why each one is printed rather than summarised into a score. A reason is an argument you can check. Players nobody drafts at all have no average draft position and cannot appear.
Who the points flattered, and who they hid
2025 scoring against what the opportunities were worth
Puka Nacua
Touchdowns are the least repeatable thing in football, so a gap this size rarely comes twice. At the other end Justin Jefferson fell 48 short of his own opportunities — the volume was there and the points were not.
- Puka NacuaWR · LA375 vs 305actual / expected+70375 vs 305 actual / expected74% of snaps (+7)Adams −34
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA360 vs 297actual / expected+63360 vs 297 actual / expected89% of snaps (+9)Shaheed −20
- Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET367 vs 305actual / expected+61367 vs 305 actual / expected71% of snaps (+3)Montgomery +3 more gone · 166 carries free
- Jonathan TaylorRB · IND362 vs 306actual / expected+56362 vs 306 actual / expected88% of snaps (+2)
- De'Von AchaneRB · MIA323 vs 266actual / expected+56323 vs 266 actual / expected75% of snaps (−2)Wright +18
- James CookRB · BUF302 vs 250actual / expected+52302 vs 250 actual / expected51% of snaps (−12)Davis +7
- Justin JeffersonWR · MIN202 vs 249actual / expected−48202 vs 249 actual / expected95% of snaps (−4)Felton +13Nailor +2 more gone · 63 targets free
- Darnell MooneyWR · ATL82 vs 126actual / expected−4482 vs 126 actual / expected70% of snaps (−20)now at NYGRobinson and Bellinger +1 more gone · 181 targets free
- Emeka EgbukaWR · TB196 vs 237actual / expected−42196 vs 237 actual / expected58% of snaps (−30)Evans and White +1 more gone · 111 targets free
- Dak PrescottQB · DAL314 vs 355actual / expected−41314 vs 355 actual / expected91% of snaps (−9)
- Jerry JeudyWR · CLE121 vs 158actual / expected−37121 vs 158 actual / expected88% of snaps (+2)Larvadain −19Njoku and Ford +1 more gone · 89 targets free
- Davante AdamsWR · LA223 vs 257actual / expected−34223 vs 257 actual / expected46% of snaps (−34)Smith +21
What they scored, against what their carries, targets and field position were statistically worth. Touchdowns are the least repeatable part of the game, so a gap this size rarely repeats in either direction — but the expectation assumes the role repeats too, and under each name is what is known to have changed. A gap describes the season behind it; whether the work is still coming is the part underneath the name.
What has left, and joined, each roster
2025 production, set against where those players are now
- Jaylen Waddleto DEN · 194
- Tua Tagovailoato ATL · 161
- Julian Hillto NE · 31
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhineto IND · 20
- Tanner Connerto NYG · 18
- Alec Ingoldto LAC · 14
- +3 more
- Malik Willisfrom GB · 51
- Jalen Tolbertfrom DAL · 46
- Tutu Atwellfrom LA · 31
- Ben Simsfrom MIN · 6
2025 production set against where those players are now, worked out by comparing the club they played for with the club they are on today. Every club is on the scale and any of them opens above it. It says what is available, not who gets it: a player still on the roster whose role changes anyway, and a drafted rookie, are both invisible here. Read it alongside the regression lists, where a player whose team-mate has left is a different proposition from one whose has not.
Whose job changed
Snap share, last 3 games of 2025 against the rest- 78% → 29% snaps21.0 → 15.0 in a typical gameto Malik Davis
- 10% → 50% snaps3.0 → 11.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Javonte Williams
- 68% → 33% snaps15.5 → 5.0 in a typical game
- 37% → 71% snaps3.5 → 17.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Alvin Kamara
- 14% → 45% snaps1.0 → 2.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Josh Jacobs
- 87% → 10% snaps6.5 → 1.0 in a typical gameto Chimere Dike
- 3% → 69% snaps0.0 → 4.0 in a typical game
- 62% → 13% snaps5.0 → 1.0 in a typical game
- 24% → 72% snaps1.0 → 3.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Dont'e Thornton Jr.
- 63% → 16% snaps3.5 → 2.0 in a typical game
- 44% → 92% snaps1.0 → 3.0 in a typical game
- 15% → 62% snaps0.5 → 1.0 in a typical gameat the expense of David Njoku
- 69% → 24% snaps5.0 → 2.0 in a typical gameto George Kittle
- 32% → 76% snaps1.5 → 4.0 in a typical game
- 26% → 66% snaps2.0 → 3.0 in a typical gameat the expense of Johnny Mundt
- 100% → 2% snaps35.0 → 1.0 in a typical game
- 100% → 6% snaps41.0 → 3.0 in a typical game
- 100% → 10% snaps43.0 → 1.0 in a typical game
- 99% → 46% snaps38.0 → 24.0 in a typical gameto Tyler Shough
- 100% → 59% snaps29.0 → 15.0 in a typical game
Share of his team's offensive snaps across the last three games of 2025 against every game before them, for players who held a real role on one side of the change, and ranked within his own position because a quarterback losing his job dwarfs everything else. Where a team-mate at the same position moved the other way he is named — that is an association, not a cause. A share can move because of an injury, a benching, a change of scheme or nothing that repeats, and this cannot tell them apart. What it does say is that the player who finished the season was not doing the same job as the one who started it, which is the part a points list leaves out.
Form
Runs still alive at the end of 2025
Rhamondre Stevenson
He averages 12.8 across 2025 and finished it running well clear of that. A star scoring like a star is not news; this list is ranked on the distance from a player's own level, which is what makes a breakout visible before the price catches up.
- Rhamondre StevensonRB NEP3 straight startable games+14.0
- Michael WilsonWR ARI5 straight startable games+8.5
- Chris OlaveWR NOS3 straight startable games+11.0
- Derrick HenryRB BAL3 straight startable games+10.6
- Trevor LawrenceQB JAC6 straight startable games+7.3
- Parker WashingtonWR JAC3 straight startable games+10.2
- Zach CharbonnetRB SEA3 straight startable games+9.4
- Zay FlowersWR BAL5 straight startable games+5.8
- De'Von AchaneRB MIA16 straight startable games16
- Chase BrownRB CIN11 straight startable games11
- Puka NacuaWR LAR10 straight startable games10
- Christian McCaffreyRB SFO9 straight startable games9
- A.J. BrownWR NEP7 straight startable games7
- Trevor LawrenceQB JAC6 straight startable games6
- Michael WilsonWR ARI5 straight startable games5
- Zay FlowersWR BAL5 straight startable games5
Startable means clearing replacement level at his position — the first player nobody has to start — for a 12-team league starting 2 WR and a flex, the most common setup. This block has no league controls of its own, so unlike the draft board it does not follow a selection; the bar is the page default and is stated here rather than left to be assumed. Breaking out is ranked on how far above his own 2025 average the run sits, so a star doing what a star does will not appear there — that is why it leads rather than the reliable list, which is mostly players everyone has already drafted. Runs are anchored to his most recent game.
Opening 5 fixtures
How generous each team's first 5 opponents were to each position in 2025QB
league average 16.3 pts a game allowed
HOU
BAL
CHI
RB
league average 22.2 pts a game allowed
WR
league average 30.7 pts a game allowed
Shown as the difference from the league average, so positive means his opponents gave up more than most and negative means less. That is also what makes the four positions comparable: each is measured against its own average, where the raw totals are not. Rated on 2025 defences, because a season needs four weeks in it before its own numbers mean anything — a defence that has changed personnel will not behave the same way.